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Claim Timing — How Fast Do Recipients Claim Remittances?

Status: Not Started
Priority: Critical
Last Updated: 2026-05-20
Contributors Welcome: Yes — see below

What We Don’t Know

How quickly do remittance recipients claim their funds after being notified?

We have no empirical data on:

Current design assumes: Recipients will claim within 24 hours (covenant expiry window).

Reality unknown: Do recipients claim in 30 minutes? 3 hours? 18 hours? Is the distribution bimodal (urgent vs. casual)?

Why It Matters

1. Time-Based Settlement Incentive Design

Without data, we’re designing blind.

2. Volatility Exposure Window

Sender volatility risk scales with claim time:

If recipients naturally claim fast, volatility is less of a problem than we think.
If they claim slow, we need stronger incentives or shorter expiry windows.

3. Capital Efficiency (Seller Economics)

Seller effective APR depends on capital turnover:

Slow claims kill seller economics. Fast claims make the model viable.

4. Covenant Parameter Validation

The 24h expiry window is arbitrary:

Data tells us whether current parameters are reasonable or need adjustment.

Current Hypothesis

Educated guess (no data):

Reasoning:

This is pure speculation. We need data.

Investigation Method

Option 1: Survey (Low Cost, Moderate Reliability)

Who to survey:

Questions:

  1. “When you send money to family in Venezuela, how quickly do they usually pick it up?”
    • Within 1 hour
    • 1-3 hours
    • 3-6 hours
    • 6-12 hours
    • 12-24 hours
    • More than 24 hours
  2. “What factors affect how quickly they claim it?”
    • Distance to pickup location
    • Merchant operating hours
    • Urgency of need
    • Work/school schedule
    • Trust in the system
  3. “If they could get a small bonus (€0.30) for claiming within 2 hours, would that change their behavior?”
    • Yes, would prioritize fast claim
    • Maybe, depends on situation
    • No, other factors more important

Sample size needed: 50-100 responses for directional signal

Tools:

Estimated effort: 4-8 hours (survey design, posting, analysis)

Reliability: Moderate (self-reported behavior ≠ actual behavior, but better than nothing)

Option 2: Existing Remittance Data (High Reliability, Hard to Obtain)

Potential data sources:

What to look for:

Estimated effort: 10-20 hours (research, outreach, negotiation)

Reliability: High (actual behavior, not self-reported)

Option 3: Phase 0 Trial Measurement (Highest Reliability, Delayed)

During Phase 0 trials, track:

Measure:

Advantages:

Disadvantages:

Estimated effort: Built into Phase 0 infrastructure (logging)

Reliability: Highest (actual protocol usage)

Success Criterion

This unknown is “answered” when we have:

  1. Median claim time (50th percentile) with 80% confidence interval
  2. 90th percentile claim time (defines timeout threshold)
  3. Distribution shape (unimodal? bimodal? skewed?)
  4. Sensitivity to incentives (will time bonuses work?)

Minimum viable answer (for Phase 0 launch):

Gold standard answer (for Phase 1 refinement):

Phase 0 Trial Integration

Logging Requirements

Covenant metadata to track:

{
  "covenant_id": "...",
  "created_at": "2026-06-15T14:30:00Z",
  "claimed_at": "2026-06-15T16:45:00Z",
  "claim_duration_minutes": 135,
  "settlement_window": "6h",
  "time_bonus_earned": 0.002
}

Metrics Dashboard

Real-time Phase 0 metrics:

Iteration triggers:

Contributor Guidance

Skills Needed

Estimated Effort

How to Start

Step 1: Choose investigation method (survey recommended for speed)

Step 2: If surveying:

  1. Draft survey questions (use template above)
  2. Post in relevant communities:
    • r/vzla (Venezuelan subreddit)
    • Spanish expat Telegram groups
    • Venezuelan community Facebook groups
  3. Offer small BCH incentive for completion (0.001 BCH)
  4. Collect responses for 1-2 weeks

Step 3: Analyze results:

Step 4: Document findings:

Open Questions

  1. Does urgency correlate with amount?
    • Are €50 remittances claimed faster than €200 remittances?
    • Or opposite (larger amounts = more urgent need)?
  2. Does time of day matter?
    • Morning remittances claimed faster (recipient has full day)?
    • Evening remittances delayed (merchant hours, recipient obligations)?
  3. First-time vs. repeat behavior:
    • Do first-time users claim slower (unfamiliar process)?
    • Do repeat users claim faster (trust established)?
  4. Cultural/geographic factors:
    • Does Spain→Venezuela differ from other corridors?
    • Urban vs. rural recipient differences?

Status Updates

2026-05-20: Investigation brief created, no data yet.

Want to investigate this unknown? Follow the contributor guidance above and share your findings. No approval needed—permissionless contribution in action.

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