RS062: Seller Profitability Simulation (Summary)
Full Research: /home/suso/Documents/asgaya/knowledge/research/RS062_seller_profitability_simulation.md
Date: June 2026
Type: Back-test simulation
Period: 12 months historical BCH price data
Key Finding: 7% Buffer Success Rate
Claim window tested: 4 hours
Result:
- 99.45% success rate (covenant settles normally)
- 0.55% abort rate (BCH drops >7% within 4 hours)
- 2 out of 365 days breached the 7% buffer
Comparison with other window lengths:
- 4-hour window: 0.55% abort rate
- 24-hour window: 2.30% abort rate
Interpretation: Longer claim windows = more volatility exposure = higher abort rates.
Relevance to Constraints
7% Volatility Buffer:
- Validates 7% as adequate for short claim windows (4 hours)
- 8-hour Phase 0 window likely: 0.8-1.2% abort rate (between 4h and 24h)
- Trade-off: Longer windows = better UX but higher abort risk
Money Velocity:
- Fast capital recycling requires short windows
- 99.45% success means buffer rarely consumed
- Failed transactions return capital quickly (abort within hours)
Caveats
- Back-test, not production: Simulated historical data, not real user behavior
- 4-hour windows only: 8-hour Phase 0 window not tested
- Price-only: Doesn’t account for user claim timing patterns
- 12-month period: Single year may not capture all volatility regimes
Phase 0 Validation
What we’re measuring:
- Actual abort rate with 8-hour windows
- Median claim time (hypothesis: 2-4 hours, not 8)
- Payday concentration impact on abort rates
- User perception of abort risk
Success criteria:
- Abort rate <1% validates buffer adequacy
- Median claim <4 hours validates velocity assumptions
Referenced in: